Mt. Rainier – Disappointment Cleaver

The main threat this trip is Tuesday's storm. Surface forecast shows 100% precip at the trailhead level (5,400 ft) with temps at 42°F, meaning rain and slushy snow through the lower mountain. Applying the standard ~2x wind multiplier to Tuesday's 5–14 mph surface winds gives 10–28 mph at the cleaver (~12,300 ft), but Tuesday night jumps to 14–26 mph at the surface — that's 28–52 mph at summit elevation, well into the threshold where climbing becomes dangerous and hypothermia risk spikes. Tuesday is a tent day, full stop.

Annie Springs SNOTEL at 6,021 ft is showing only 1 inch of snow depth with 0.1 inches SWE — essentially bare ground on the lower mountain. That means the approach through the lower snowfields is likely rock, dirt, and ice rather than consolidated snow. Crampons and ice axe will be necessary earlier than typical for November. The NWAC has not issued an avalanche rating for this zone yet — the season is too early and snowpack too thin for a formal bulletin — but their standing guidance applies: watch for recent cracking or collapsing on any loaded slopes above you. The Tuesday storm will deposit new snow above roughly 6,000–7,000 ft (rain-snow line near that elevation given 42°F at base). That new snow on a near-bare, icy surface is exactly the setup for loose slabs on the cleaver's steeper pitches. Give it Tuesday night to consolidate before moving.

Wednesday looks like your window. Temps hold at 45°F at the surface, winds drop to 6–22 mph SSW (12–44 mph at summit — manageable on the lower end, watch the gusts), and skies go mostly cloudy with no precip. Wednesday night is even calmer: 41°F, 6–12 mph SSE at the surface. If you're positioned at Camp Muir or Ingraham Flats by Tuesday night, a 1–2 AM Wednesday alpine start gives you roughly 12–13 hours of usable time before the 4:40 PM sunset — tight but workable for the DC route with a fit team.

With only 9h 37m of daylight and sunset at 4:40 PM, any delay on summit day bites hard. Plan your turnaround time before you leave camp — a reasonable hard turnaround for a November DC attempt is 11 AM to ensure you're off the upper mountain before dark. Stream gauge data provided is from Central California and not relevant to this route. Fires are clear.