Mt. Rainier – Disappointment Cleaver

The single most important thing missing here is weather. For a Disappointment Cleaver attempt, you need wind speeds at the 14,000 ft level, freezing level trends across your summit window, and storm timing — none of that is available right now. The NWS outage isn't a minor gap; on Rainier, a surprise lenticular or a freezing level jump to 12,000 ft during your descent can turn a summit day into a serious situation fast. Before you leave the trailhead, pull the Camp Muir point forecast directly from weather.gov and check NWAC's DC-specific discussion. Do not rely on valley forecasts extrapolated upward.

Avalanche data is also unrated from NWAC for the West Slopes South zone. That said, the bulletin discussion is minimal — no identified problems — and late-season Rainier snowpack in early May is typically well-consolidated on the DC route. The SNOTEL picture is consistent with late spring conditions: Long Lake at 840 ft is showing 82 inches depth with a falling trend, which at that elevation in May reflects normal melt-out, not instability. Annie Springs at 6,021 ft is nearly bare at 1 inch. Neither station is proximate enough to the route to give you direct snowpack intel above 10,000 ft, but the falling trend at lower elevations is expected and doesn't signal a loading event. Watch for the standard DC hazards: afternoon softening on the Ingrasar Flats, bergschrund conditions near the crater rim, and rockfall on the cleaver itself as the season progresses.

Daylight is excellent — 14.5 hours with sunrise at 5:49 AM. A standard alpine start at midnight or 1 AM gives you a full frozen-snow window on the way up and puts you on the descent before serious afternoon softening. That timing math works well for early May. Stream crossings on the approach are at normal flows across all gauges and are not a concern. No fire activity within 50 miles.

Bottom line on logistics: the 3-day window May 3–6 gives you flexibility to sit on a weather hold at Camp Muir if needed, which is the right call. Get to Muir on Day 1, assess summit conditions in person, and make your go/no-go on the spot with a real forecast in hand. Don't pre-commit to a summit day from the parking lot.