Cascade Pass & Sahale Arm

The weather is the story here. Snow starts tonight (99% precip, 30°F) and runs continuously through Tuesday with 100% precip and temps stuck at 34-38°F — that's the wet, heavy Pacific snow that soaks everything and bonds poorly to early-season surfaces. The Sahale Arm above 6,000 ft is going to be socked in and icy by Tuesday morning. The avalanche bulletin shows no rating yet from NWAC, which is typical for early November before the season opens — that doesn't mean safe, it means unassessed. The bulletin note says to watch for cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanche debris. With fresh snow loading onto a minimal base (Annie Springs at 6,021 ft only shows 1 inch depth and 0.1 inch SWE right now), any new accumulation from this storm is loading onto rocks and vegetation, not a bonded snowpack. Treat the Arm above treeline with the same caution you'd give a Considerable day until you can read the snow on the ground.

Veterans Day on Wednesday looks like a brief window — 25% precip chance, partly clearing — but winds push 8-17 mph SE through Wednesday night and into Thursday, still mostly cloudy. That's your best shot at a summit push on Sahale if the overnight freeze Wednesday night sets up a crust. Watch the overnight low: 34°F Wednesday night is too warm for a reliable freeze, so expect soft and unconsolidated snow Thursday morning rather than a supportable crust.

The stream flow data provided is from California gauges — geographically irrelevant to Cascade Pass. Treat crossing conditions as unknown. That said, Cascade Pass trail crosses Cascade Creek and several seasonal drainages below the pass. With a multi-day rain-and-snow event hitting the drainage, expect higher-than-normal flow by Tuesday afternoon, especially on south-facing drainages that may see rain below 4,000 ft Tuesday night (temps reach 34-36°F, so rain-snow line will be right on top of the lower trail). Check the Skagit River gauge at Marblemount as a rough proxy for basin saturation if you can get a cell signal before you leave.

Daylight is the quiet logistical squeeze — 4:33 PM sunset means you lose usable light by 4:00 PM. If you're on the Arm on Tuesday, plan to be back at Pelton Basin camp or below before 3:30 PM. Leave camp by 7:30 AM at the latest on any summit day. The overnight temps are cold enough that a wet camp with limited drying time is a real attrition factor over three nights — vapor barrier strategy or a solid camp routine matters here.